According to statistics released by the State Energy Administration, by the end of November 2017, China's cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity had reached 125.79 GW, up 67% year-on-year. The new installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic system reached 17.23GW, according to the statistics released by the State Energy Administration in the same period of 2016. By the end of November 2017, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic system in China reached 125.79 GW, up 67% year on year. The new installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic reached 17.23GW, 3.7 times the increase in the same period in 2016, and the growth rate increased 3 times compared with the same period in the same period last year.
According to the data given by the State Grid, the total number of rooftop photovoltaic installations at the end of 2016 was 200,000, exceeding 400,000 in June 2017.
■ Several Major Policies for Predicting the Trend of 2018 Distributed Photovoltaic
In 2017, China's distributed photovoltaic system can achieve such outstanding results, which cannot be separated from a series of favorable policies. Summing up and sorting out the policies of the past year, it is found that several major policy documents have great influence on 2018 distributed photovoltaic industry:
(1) On October 31, 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Launching Pilot Marketization Transactions for Distributed Generation."
Analysis: The promulgation of the Notice enables distributed power generation to realize direct electricity transactions with users from the previous "full access to the Internet" and "for individual users' own use of surplus electricity", or entrust power grid enterprises to sell electricity on their behalf, so that some of the electricity sales revenue can be transferred to distributed power generation project units. Therefore, the distributed power generation field is bound to become an important investment target for distribution power companies.
(2) On November 8, 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission issued "Opinions on Deepening the Reform of Price Mechanism in an All-round Way." Analysis: The Opinion proposes to improve the pricing mechanism for renewable energy, implement a slope-back mechanism for benchmark grid-connected electricity prices for new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaic power according to technological progress and market supply and demand, and achieve a grid-connected electricity price equivalent to that for wind power and coal-fired power generation and a grid-connected electricity price equivalent to that for photovoltaic power generation by 2020, which will lay a foundation for opening up a new situation of industrial and commercial distribution. In addition, we will launch a pilot project for the nearby consumption of distributed new energy resources, determine the price of new energy power generation through market-oriented bidding, and better improve the price mechanism so as to reduce the demand for new subsidy funds and promote the healthy and orderly development of the new energy industry chain.
(3) On December 22, 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Price Policy for Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects in 2018
Analysis: Several information points were obtained from the Notice. First, for distributed photovoltaic power generation projects that have been put into operation since January 1, 2018 and adopt the mode of "self-use and surplus access to the Internet", the subsidy standard for full power consumption will be reduced by 0.05 yuan, i.e. the subsidy standard will be adjusted to 0.37 yuan per kilowatt hour (including tax). This is more optimistic than the reduction of the subsidy to 0.35, which is widely predicted by the industry, and it can also reflect from the side that the country still encourages the development of distributed photovoltaic projects. Second, the full on-line electricity price will be lowered in 0.1 yuan and the distributed electricity subsidy will be lowered by 0.05 yuan. It can be seen that the income of the "self-use" mode will be relatively increased, which further indicates that the state is more inclined to support the "self-use" distributed photovoltaic power generation and local consumption.
■ Experts predict that a new mode of local policy to tilt distributed partition power supply to renewable energy will be formed soon
Regarding the 2018 distributed market, Peng Peng, director of the policy research department of the renewable energy Committee of the China recycling economy association, made some predictions at the second China photovoltaic industry development and innovation application forum. She believes that under the pressure of the state's implementation of the photovoltaic subsidy slope removal mechanism and the reduction of coal and carbon, local policies will be inclined to renewable energy correspondingly. The rapid development of roof photovoltaic will drive the market demand for efficient components. The market-oriented trading pilot will open up a new mode of distributed partition power supply and even spread across the country. Facing the increasing opportunities of distributed photovoltaic project development and financing, more non-energy enterprises will cross the border into this field.
■ What is the PV revenue after the subsidy is lowered?
People who do photovoltaic know that photovoltaic power generation systems can convert solar energy into electrical energy. The generated electricity can not only satisfy users' own use, but also sell the rest of the electricity to the state to make money, and enjoy the 20-year subsidy given by the state, although it is currently reduced to 0.37 yuan/degree.
Saved Electricity Charge+Revenue from Electricity Sale+Subsidy Revenue = Final Revenue from Home Photovoltaic Power Station
Save electricity bills: generate electricity for your own use without paying electricity bills, which is tantamount to making money.
Subsidy income: state subsidy of 0.37 yuan/degree+provincial subsidy+municipal subsidy
Revenue from selling electricity: the electricity that cannot be used up can be sold to the state (the price can be 0.56 yuan/degree according to the benchmark price of the local coal-fired desulfurization unit)
Taking Hunan Province as an Example to Estimate the Investment Income of Installing 10 kW Household Photovoltaic Power Station;
Installed capacity: 10kw
Floor space: about 80 square meters
Investment amount: 80,000-100,000 yuan
Grid connection mode: spontaneous self-use and surplus power online
Annual power generation of the system: 11000 -13000 degrees
The service life of the system: 25 years (the total revenue of customers' spontaneous self-use is over 360,000 yuan)
Annual income of all customers for their own use:
0.638 yuan/degree (the second-tier electricity price)+0.37 yuan/degree for state compensation+0.37 yuan/degree for province compensation 0.2 yuan/degree+1.308 yuan/degree for city compensation 0.1 yuan/degree *11000 degree =13011 yuan
50% of customers use 50% of their own power and 50% of the annual income from the Internet: 1.308 yuan/degree *5500 degrees =7194 yuan +50% of the income from the Internet (the purchase price of the Electricity Authority is 0.447 yuan/degree+the state subsidy is 0.72 yuan/degree) *5500 degrees =6418.5 yuan
Total: 13612.5 yuan
Cost recovery: expected to return to the original in 6 years. (Considering the different light intensity and local subsidies, it will generally return to the original in about 6 years)
Annual return rate: 15%-20% (recovery value accounts for about 10% of total investment after 25 years)
Conclusion: After 6 years of returning to the original book, you can use electricity and make money free of charge.
Therefore, even if photovoltaic power is reduced, we can still earn back the cost of the power station in the previous few years, and the remaining ten years will be pure income, or we can still earn it!
■ Making Safe Money: Choosing Trusted Household Photovoltaic Brand
The favorable policy orientation and favorable rate of return have proved once again that there is much to be done in the future residential photovoltaic market.
The increasing demand in the home photovoltaic market has led many photovoltaic brand enterprises to distribute one after another. Whether it is photovoltaic components, inverters or photovoltaic investment enterprises, they have successively launched their own household brands in an attempt to grab market share in the household photovoltaic field.
Under the influence of the brand, what is affected is the quality of the products. Therefore, consumers must keep their eyes wide open when choosing users to use photovoltaic systems to guard against being cheated.