As one of the first countries to lay out new energy vehicles, China has always attached great importance to the sustainable development of society and environment, and has accelerated the development of hydrogen fuel cell industry in an all-round way with strong and sustained policies. "New energy vehicles are expected to make a leap after 2020, which is a qualitative expansion." Xu Changming, deputy director of the National Information Center, said at the "5th China-South Korea Auto Industry Development Seminar" on November 2.
The fifth China-South Korea automobile industry development seminar, with the theme of "future automobiles", continued the high specifications and professionalism of the previous four sessions. The seminar invited top authoritative experts in the automobile industry of China and South Korea to conduct in-depth exchanges and discussions on new energy vehicles represented by hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, intelligent vehicle networking and automatic driving technologies.
At the meeting, Xu Changming predicted that the total size of China's future automobile market would increase by another 50% from the current level. The algorithm is very simple, that is, if the amount of ownership and the sales volume reach the peak value, there is a mathematical relationship between them. The amount of ownership divided by the retirement period is the sales volume. According to an average of 15 years for a car to be scrapped, the number of cars divided by 15 is almost the peak value of sales. If you consider the purchase restriction factor, the number of cars owned by 1,000 people in China should be around 400, multiplied by a population of nearly 1.5 billion, and the number of cars owned in the future will be 600 million. Divided by the 15-year retirement period, the sales volume will be 40 million, an increase of 50% over the present.
With such a huge car market, new energy vehicles will occupy an important position. Xu Changming judges that new energy vehicles will have a rapid development after 2020, and it is a qualitative expansion. Xu Changming analyzed that the huge demand for automobiles determines that China must vigorously develop new energy vehicles. There are various considerations for the development of new energy vehicles. The Ministry of Science and Technology wants to realize overtaking in corners by independent brands. Therefore, the formulation of new energy vehicle policies is the time when the sales of independent brands enter a low ebb. From 2011 to 2014, independent brands were squeezed by joint ventures almost to death. People have no confidence that traditional cars can catch up with international brands. The solution is to hope to overtake in the corners of new energy vehicles. While other aspects should consider how to solve environmental pollution and dependence on oil.
In order to encourage the development of new energy vehicles, the government has issued a subsidy policy, a purchase restriction policy and a double points policy. The Chinese government gives high subsidies to new energy vehicles. Last year, a car could make up more than 90,000 yuan. This year has seen a decline and will gradually fade out in the future. However, the purchase restriction policy still strongly supports new energy vehicles. Take Beijing as an example, the success rate for buying traditional fuel vehicles is about 800: 1, while new energy vehicles are basically applied for this year, and they will almost reach the target next year. Coupled with direct intervention in the fields of buses, logistics vehicles and so on, Xu Changming predicted that nearly 1 million new energy vehicles could be sold. The rest depends on the landing of the double points policy. The core essence of the double points policy is to let the enterprises that produce traditional fuel vehicles pay to support the development of new energy vehicles. The policy supports enterprises to produce new energy vehicles, even if they do not produce them, but they have to pay for points. From government subsidies to car companies, the latter is much stronger than the former.
Xu Changming believes that although the subsidy policy will fade out after 2020, the factors driving the market will rise with the landing of the double points policy. At present, the market for new energy vehicles is policy-driven and will become market-driven after 2025, which is the most effective.